This is a big question in the minds of people who are not likely to vote for the Congress Party. Alternatively, the question in the minds of the Congress is "who will the NDA's PM candidate be?" The BJP, the major party in the NDA alliance, is playing its cards close to its chest. Maybe they don't have any consensus yet, or maybe there are too many competing candidates...
2014 election issues
- The big issue in the 2014 election is undoubtedly going to be corruption. The 3G scam, and lesser scams before it (the Commonwealth games, etc.) are making daily news, and the press and opposition aren't going to let the issue rest easily.
- While national security and global positioning are really important to a country like India, this is not something that directly affects the common man. Unless, of course, terrorist strikes occur. But, we Indians tend to forget too soon, and move right on. I am unsure how the NDA is going to be able to bring back national security into focus.
- The economy and 'resources' are going to be a big focus. While India is certainly booming in general, Pranab Mukherjee's budgets haven't really helped. Rural India needs to catch up, and NREGA isn't the answer, whatever Congress might claim. There are big gaps in power and infrastructure, and not much has happened on this front in the last few years.
Do you see any other issues as potentially becoming 2014 election issues?
I have a few potential candidates in mind - ranked in order of my preferences for each.
Narendra Modi
Pros: Impeccable track record of governance as Gujarat's chief minister, all-round development, tangible metrics to prove the impact, feedback from all walks of society and several organizations national and international. The corporates love him (which by itself should not be a 'con').
Modi has charisma, something India wants to see in its prime ministers. His oratory skills come close to those of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. He is also no-nonsense, with the ability to hold audiences of different varieties engaged (IIT/IIM students, India Today conclave, etc.) with the right messages and details.
Cons: Just one, and mostly undeserved, if you ask me. A lot has been said, and written, about the Gujarat riots and Narendra Modi's alleged involvement. The law is taking its course (with the Congress at the centre holding the reigns of the CBI and other state machinery), and we haven't seen any convictions yet. Still, the common man's perceptions cannot be easily shaken.
One can be sure that if Modi were to be the BJP's candidate, there might be dissent even with the NDA, and the Congress and the media will have a field day during the campaigning.
Sushma Swaraj
Pros: Has been Delhi's chief minister, and former cabinet minister and minister in Haryana. Has held several portfolios. Swaraj is currently the leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha, and does have charisma and oratory skills. Swaraj famously contested against Sonia Gandhi for the Lok Sabha in 2004 (?) and lost.
Cons: She is not that well known in many states, and does not have a governance track record the way Modi or some others do.
Swaraj does have it in her to become India's 2nd woman prime minister, but her pan-India appeal could be the stumbling block.
Arun Jaitley
I have grown to admire Arun Jaitley over the last few years. The more I learn about him, the more I like him. Jaitley was a student politics leader (ABVP), went to jail during the Emergency, became an A-list lawyer (he loves IP but has done other areas of law too), was additional solicitor general during VP Singh's government, and is now a biggie in the BJP. He led the BJP campaign in 2009, and failed despite anti-incumbency working against the Congress.
Jaitley is an excellent speaker, presents points of view very coherently in a range of settings (Karan Thapar can vouch for this), is a darling of the "right of centre" educated crowd..
Cons: He probably does not have the charisma of a Modi or Vajpayee. Some if the RSS and the BJP do not consider him a 'son of the soil' despite his ABVP beginnings, and he probably does not have the grassroots support of the party cadre.
Another major negative is that, while he is leader of the opposition in the Rajya Sabha, and has held cabiner ministerial portfolios, he does not have a governance track record.
Manohar Parrikar
This is another politician I've grown to admire over the years. Very down to earth, well educated (he went to an IIT), and understands the common man's needs. Has a track record of good governance, and is back in the driver's seat in Goa after last month's elections.
It is unlikely that Parrikar will be BJP's candidate, but I'd love to see the day he is actively considered.
My last candidate is not from the BJP (!).
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Jayalalitha
The AIADMK and the BJP have had a love-hate relationship, but by and large they seem to have mutually acceptable ideologies. The AIADMK isn't anti-any community or fanatic in any way (unlike DMK), and Jayalalitha is known to be a good administrator.
Jayalalitha has charisma, can speak English and Hindi, as well as Tamil and probably Kannada too. The nation knows her for what she has accomplished, and sees her as a no-nonsense politician.
Cons: Unsure what her appeal will be in the Hindi heartland, or on the grassroot BJP cadre. Still, quite a strong candidate if you ask me.
The BJP is actually unlikely to pick her, but I have some hopes since Cho Ramaswamy indicated in his speech during the 2012 Tughlaq annual function that the BJP should give this thought. Had Cho not made this suggestion, I would not be able to come up with this thought as a possibility myself!
For now, the BJP seems to be secretive about its 2014 election plans. I think this is a good strategy, but they should come out with a candidate when the campaigns start. In India, while the party counts, the prime ministerial candidate is key too. Maybe the BJP is waiting for Congress to announce its candidate first, and it most certainly will not be Manmohan Singh!
