Why status quo with Pakistan on core issues is good

Image courtesy: pon.harvard.edu

I am a firm believer in normalizing India's ties with our neighbour across the northwest border. However, in the last 1-2 decades, the strategic positions of the two countries have changed so drastically that India has the opportunity of a lifetime to set right the diplomacy follies of the Nehru era.

Pakistan has successfully made Kashmir a core issue in diplomacy with India, amply aided by Nehru shooting himself in the foot over what the world would have considered a case of aggression by Pakistan. By taking the matter to the United Nations, some of India's position on Kashmir has been diluted. Still, the United Nations resolution on Kashmir is impractical, not only from India's perspective, but firstly from Pakistan's perspective since the resolution calls for Pakistan withdrawing troops from the state of Jammu and Kashmir (including Gilgit, Baltistan (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir)). Aksai Chin is of course a related, more tricky, matter to deal with.

During India's first Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the Ministry of External Affairs is said to have had successfully negotiated a 'borderless Kashmir' with General Musharraf of Pakistan. While this may not appear to be a bad thing at face value, the unfolding of the war on terror in Af-Pak and Pakistan's increasingly solidifying pariah status in the world lead me to believe that this softening of the LoC border may have turned out to be a diplomatic blunder (partly in hindsight of course).
 
Now, for some context - the high voltage bilateral issues between India and Pakistan appear to be:

1. Kashmir. Enough said.
2. Water. Pakistan accuses India of building dams on the Indian side to stop water from reaching Pakistan. Some of the accusations (probably just the media talking heads) go to the extent of blaming India of engineering the recent floods in Pakistan. Many in Pakistan also believe that the water issue has a strong diplomatic framework in the form of the Indus Water Treaty (1970s) that has worked well for both countries.
3. Terrorism. This has been India's concern, and thankfully the world has woken up to the danger that Pakistan presents to the region and beyond.

Maintenance of status quo has normally been to India's benefit. Whatever Kashmir resolution is arrived at would likely mean India giving up more than it can get. Hence, Pakistan has more incentive to bring India to the table, which I think India has successfully avoided in the recent past. Given that Pakistan's standing in the world has been on a downward spiral, and better support for India's position in general, it is in India's best interests to maintain the status quo while Pakistan weakens further (which is inevitable, in my opinion, over the next decade or two). A weaker Pakistan will have much less negotiation power at the table.

India is also doing the right thing by insisting on tangible action on terrorism as a pre-requisite for any negotiation on other outstanding issues. Here, Pakistan can make it a win-win situation, by rooting out terrorism emanating from its land, but this is easier said than done even if the Pakistan government wanted to do something about it.

The water issues, I think, is a non-issue with the diplomats raising the issue, if at all, only as a populist measure. 

India's 'involvement' in Balochistan flared up as an accusation by Pakistan at Sharm al Sheikh, but that seems to have died down despite Prime Minister Singh 'acknowledging' the issue in the joint press release.  

Trade may actually be an important conduit for India to help Pakistan while making its own negotiation power higher. Pakistan's agriculture, small scale, and other industries stand to benefit significantly by expansion of trade with India. India, on the other, will benefit no doubt, but being deprived of this trade will not cause any massive impact. Once Pakistan reciprocates and accords India the Most Favoured Nation status, I would expect Pakistan's economy's dependence on India to increase significantly. If this were to happen, the threat of suspension of trade ties by India would be an important tool in India's diplomatic arsenal.

Bottom line, India stands to gain by maintaining diplomatic status quo on the issues that Pakistan stands to gain by any sort of resolution being reached (while Pakistan is on its downward spiral). Enhancement of trade with Pakistan can make India's diplomatic position stronger, with the added benefit of a new market and cheaper agricultural products for northwest India.